2026年6月1日

Gold Just Hit $4,000. Here's Why Smart Money Is Still Buying — And What It Means for You

53 record highs in a single year. Central banks accumulating at historic pace. JPMorgan targeting $6,000. The gold story in 2025–2026 is not what most retail investors think it is. The Number That Surprised Almost Everyone Gold surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time in history in October 2025, capping a rally of nearly 50% for the year — making it one of 2025's top-performing assets across any category. For most retail investors, that headline lands one of two ways: either they missed it and feel frustrated, or they assume the run is over and the opportunity has passed. Both reactions are probably wrong. What Is Actually Driving Gold Right Now This is not your grandfather's gold rally. The traditional narrative — gold goes up when inflation rises, gold goes down when rates rise — has broken down significantly since 2022. What is driving prices now is more structural. The gold price set 53 new all-time highs during 2025. Total quarterly demand of 1,303 tonnes in Q4 was the highest ever recorded for a fourth quarter, lifted by hefty ETF inflows of 175 tonnes and a 12-year high in bar and coin buying of 420 tonnes. Three forces are converging simultaneously: Central banks are buying at scale — and not stopping. Central bank and investor demand for gold is set to remain strong, averaging 585 tonnes a quarter in 2026. Trade concerns, reduced demand for the US dollar, and increased central bank buying combined to create ideal conditions for this historic upswing. This is not speculative buying. Central banks buy gold to hold for decades. ETF flows are accelerating. After two years of outflows, gold ETFs reversed sharply in 2025. Institutional money is re-entering through liquid instruments — a signal that professional allocators are rebuilding positions, not trimming them. Geopolitical risk is not going away. The price increases are a reaction to major policy, geopolitical and economic developments, including tariffs, ongoing conflicts, concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence, and fiscal uncertainty. "Investors are watching gold not just as a hedge against inflation, but as a barometer for everything from central bank policy to geopolitical risk," says Morgan Stanley Research. What the Institutions Are Forecasting The forward projections from major financial institutions are notably aligned — and notably bullish. JPMorgan's 2026 outlook calls for the bull market to continue, with gold demand expected to push prices toward $5,000 per ounce by year-end 2026. "The long-term trend of official reserve and investor diversification into gold has further to run," said Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy at JPMorgan. In February 2026, JPMorgan revised its forecast upward again — now projecting gold could reach $6,000 to $6,300 per troy ounce by end of 2026, almost 50% higher than their previous estimate. Morgan Stanley Research revised its 2026 gold forecast upward to $4,400 per ounce and expects the rally to continue as demand from central banks, ETFs, and retail investors remains strong. The Participation Gap — And Why It Matters for SEA Investors Despite the rally, retail participation in gold remains surprisingly low. Just 10.8% of the population invests in physical gold — a much smaller percentage than those who invest in stocks, where a 2025 Gallup poll found that 62% of Americans own stocks. The reasons are familiar: physical gold requires storage, insurance, and authentication. Gold futures require margin accounts and active management. Gold ETFs require access to foreign exchanges that many SEA retail investors lack through local brokerages. Tokenized gold changes this calculus. Instead of storing a physical bar or navigating a futures contract, investors can hold a digital token backed by allocated gold, tradeable in fractions, accessible from a mobile phone. The asset is the same. The friction is not. Is It Too Late to Enter? The honest answer: nobody knows. Markets do not move in straight lines, and a 50% rally in a single year creates legitimate questions about near-term consolidation. What the data does suggest is that the structural drivers — central bank accumulation, dollar diversification, geopolitical hedging demand — are not short-term phenomena. They are multi-year trends that began before 2025 and show no clear signs of reversal. The investors who missed the move from $2,000 to $4,000 are now asking whether they should wait for a pullback to $3,500 — while the institutions are forecasting $6,000. That tension is worth sitting with before making any decision. For informational and educational purposes only. All investments carry risk including potential loss of capital. This article does not constitute financial advice.

2025年12月2日

Why Gen Z is “Turning Back” to Gold Instead of Crypto & Stocks? 2025 Trend: Safety Takes the Lead

Southeast Asian Gen Z in 2025 is “Rushing” to Buy Gold: Wiser After Risky Shocks Amid a highly volatile financial market – with crypto potentially losing 50–100% in a year (CoinMarketCap 2025) and U.S. stocks easily dropping 15% during recession cycles (S&P 500 data) – Southeast Asian Gen Z (ages 18–35) is making a surprising investment shift: returning to gold. Gold, the “classic” asset, is becoming the most sought-after safe haven. Data from the SEA Youth Investment Survey 2025 (n=12,000) confirms this trend: Capital Preservation is the Top Priority: 68% of Gen Z choose “capital preservation” over high returns (up 25% vs. 2024). Breakthrough Shift: 41% bought gold or gold tokens in the past 12 months (up 120% YoY, Statista SEA 2025). Fear of “Going to Zero”: 87% worry that crypto could lose >50% of its value in 48 hours, as seen with LUNA in 2022. Gen Z is not “conservative”; they are simply becoming smarter and more pragmatic. High returns always come with high risks. With annual volatility of only 8–12% (World Gold Council 2025), gold offers superior stability compared to crypto’s 80–200% swings. 4 Reasons Gen Z Wisely Shifts to Gold SEA Gen Z once led the FOMO crypto trend (76% invested in meme coins, Chain lysis 2021–2023), but 2024–2025 marks a return to caution based on real data: Heavy Losses from Risky Channels Crypto fell an average −65% from its 2021 peak (CoinGecko); stocks fluctuate 20–30% cyclically (Fed data). 71% of Gen Z admit to losing money in crypto (CFA Institute 2024), leading to risk-averse behaviour. Inflation and Economic Uncertainty (Hedging Against Inflation) SEA inflation is 4–6% (World Bank 2025), eroding savings. Gold grows +28% YTD 2025 (Kitco forecast Q4: $3,300/oz), confirming its role as the best inflation hedge. Job Market Uncertainty (Financial Safe Haven) 55% of SEA Gen Z worry about job loss due to AI development (McKinsey 2025). Demand for a financial “safe haven” like gold increased 35% among under-30s (World Gold Council). More Accessible Than Ever: Tokenized Gold (Gold RWA) Traditional barrier: 63% of Gen Z don’t buy physical gold due to bulkiness and theft risk. Modern solution: Gold RWA tokens allow buying 0.01g for ~50,000 VND. Result: SEA Gold RWA token trading volume increased 540% YoY (Tovest internal data Q3 2025) – Gen Z drives this “digital gold” trend. Gold – The Asset Gen Z Trusts Due to 3 “Sustainable” Factors Gold may not be as “sexy” as meme coins, but stability and asset protection are why 78% of SEA Gen Z choose it as their “investment gateway” (Statista 2025). Gen Z does not abandon risk – they choose smart risk. Tokenized Gold (Gold RWA) is the perfect bridge: as safe as physical gold + as flexible as crypto. With gold projected to reach $3,500/oz in 2026 (Goldman Sachs), it’s an ideal long-term investment platform. Will Gold Outperform Crypto in 2025–2026? Gold is not a “fast-wealth king” but is a superior insurance asset in uncertain times. Why Gold Wins as a Hedge: Gold’s price has grown an average 12.8% per year over 5 years (World Gold Council), far exceeding SEA inflation at 4–6%. This provides crucial safety for Gen Z with unstable incomes (53% worry about job loss). Conclusion: Gen Z Invests in Gold for “Practicality,” Not “Classic Style” Gen Z’s return to gold is not about being “old-fashioned” – they’ve learned a key lesson: 63% prioritize safety over risk (SEA Youth Survey 2025). Gold is a financial anchor helping them survive market swings, especially when crypto and stocks can easily “go to zero.” Search Trends Surge (Google Trends & Statista 2025): “Gold investment 2025” Vietnam: +340% YoY “Should I buy gold or crypto”: +280% SEA “Safe assets Gen Z”: +420% (sharp increase from Q2 2025) If early-2020s Gen Z chased “meme” and “hype,” Gen Z in 2025 pursues safety, long-term growth, and transparency through digital gold.

2025年11月21日

MicroStrategy adds 3K BTC as Bitcoin ETFs are poised to surpass gold ETFs

MicroStrategy’s acquisition follows predictions that Bitcoin ETFs could surpass gold ETFs in assets under management during the next two years. Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 3,000 Bitcoin for a total of $155 million at an average price of $51,813 between Feb. 15 and 25. This brings the company’s Bitcoin (BTC) holdings to 193,000 Bitcoin, acquired for $6.09 billion at an average price of $31,544, according to a Feb. 26 X post by Michael Saylor, the founder and chairman of MicroStrategy, which is the largest Bitcoin holder among publicly traded companies. MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 3,000 BTC for ~$155 million at an average price of $51,813 per #bitcoin. As of 2/25/24, @MicroStrategy now hodls 193,000 $BTC acquired for ~$6.09 billion at an average price of $31,544 per bitcoin. $MSTR https://t.co/micudbYf3P — Michael Saylor The announcement of the purchase came as MicroStrategy’s X account was hacked. The hacker posted a series of malicious links to fake token airdrops, seeking to steal user funds. The fraudulent announcement led to over $440,000 being stolen, according to pseudonymous on-chain investigator ZachXBT. MicroStrategy’s latest Bitcoin acquisition follows promising predictions from senior Bloomberg analysts who foresee Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) potentially overtaking gold ETFs in assets under management (AUM) in the next two years. Gold's Pain is Bitcoin ETFs' Gain in Store of Value Smackdown.. new from me on how gold being in the gutter is like the cherry on top for bitcoin fans who just got to witness the biggest ETF launch ever. Decent chance bitcoin ETFs pass gold ETFs in aum in less than 2yrs w… pic.twitter.com/rXJra1dyhF — Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) February 26, 2024 According to a Feb. 26 research report shared on X by senior Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas and associate analyst Andre Yapp, the successful launch of Bitcoin ETFs will signal more competition for the precious metal. The 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States have amassed a total of 5,500 Bitcoin since launching on Jan. 11, according to Farside Investors data. “The Bitcoin ETFs, though barely six weeks old, have taken in over $8 billion more than gold peers, already have 40% as much in assets and could pass them in size in less than two years.” While Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed over $5 billion in net assets since launching, gold ETFs amassed $3.6 billion during the same period. Gold ETFs could potentially struggle to keep their $90 billion in assets due to gold’s price performance, noted Balchunas and Yapp in the report. Gold prices are down 0.01% in the past 24 hours to $2,033 per ounce, according to data from Gold Price. On Feb. 20, MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor said he would be buying Bitcoin forever, adding that he has no plans to sell the asset that is technically superior to gold, real estate and the S&P 500. “Bitcoin is technically superior to those asset classes. And that being the case, there’s just no reason to sell the winner to buy the losers.” Bitcoin fell 0.67% in the 24 hours to trade at $51,314, according to CoinMarketCap.

2025年11月21日

Bitcoin ETFs Set to Surpass Gold ETFs, Truly Achieving BTC > Gold

As the scale of spot BTC ETFs rapidly expands, analysts predict that BTC ETFs could soon surpass gold ETFs in assets under management. This trend highlights the growing recognition of Bitcoin as a store of value, with many viewing BTC as evolving from a speculative asset to a digital “gold” alternative. In fact, BTC ETFs have already reached $84 billion in assets under management, approximately 66% of the assets managed by gold ETFs, and this figure continues to grow. According to Bloomberg ETF senior analyst Eric Balchunas, the rapid growth of BTC ETFs could lead them to surpass gold ETFs within two months — a timeframe significantly shorter than the initial forecast of four to five years. Balchunas notes that this trend not only reflects the rising popularity of Bitcoin as an investment tool but also signals increasing acceptance of the crypto market among traditional investors. A key driver behind this shift is the confidence in Bitcoin’s scarcity and inflation-resistant qualities, particularly amid global inflation and monetary policy uncertainties. This growth has also spurred greater interest in cryptocurrency among financial institutions. For instance, as major asset management firms like BlackRock and Fidelity submit applications for spot BTC ETFs, the market sees an increase in liquidity and acceptance of Bitcoin ETFs. The involvement of these industry giants not only offers BTC ETFs enhanced structural support but also eases institutional investors’ concerns about risk. If BTC ETFs’ market value does surpass that of gold ETFs, it would mark a further strengthening of cryptocurrency’s position in mainstream finance. At that point, Bitcoin could become not only a representative of digital currencies but also a serious competitor to traditional assets like gold. BTC ETF vs. Gold ETF: Market Positioning When Bitcoin ETFs were first introduced, many in the industry compared them to digital gold ETFs, noting Bitcoin’s scarcity and blockchain technology, which provide it with unique inflation- and manipulation-resistant properties. Traditionally, gold has been the go-to asset for investors seeking to safeguard their assets during market turbulence. The launch of BTC ETFs, however, offers investors the liquidity they desire, coupled with the potential for Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation. At its core, gold’s supply is stable and limited, making it a favored inflation hedge. Bitcoin’s supply, on the other hand, is even scarcer, capped at 21 million coins — a “digital scarcity” feature that is especially appealing in inflationary times. Unlike gold, whose supply can increase annually through mining, Bitcoin’s scarcity effect acts as a powerful draw for investors in emerging markets seeking a hedge against inflation. Market Trends and Regulatory Support Since 2024, global regulatory attitudes toward crypto assets have become increasingly open. In the United States in particular, the SEC has gradually relaxed restrictions on cryptocurrency ETF products, allowing spot BTC ETFs to enter the market legally. Financial institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity have moved into the crypto space, reflecting their interest in Bitcoin and the market’s response to regulatory policy. The participation of traditional finance giants has not only injected substantial liquidity but also stabilized market sentiment, instilling confidence in more investors. Additionally, this regulatory openness has increased investor confidence in BTC ETFs, posing a direct competitive pressure on gold ETFs. Gold has held value as an asset for thousands of years, while Bitcoin has only existed for about 15 years. Yet, Bitcoin’s unique digital and decentralized nature offers investors unprecedented flexibility and autonomy. As more countries implement favorable regulatory policies, Bitcoin ETFs may gain broader global recognition, attracting more international investors. The Significance of BTC ETFs Surpassing Gold ETFs Should Bitcoin ETFs’ market value successfully exceed that of gold ETFs, it would signify a major milestone for Bitcoin as a mainstream asset and could potentially drive a significant transformation in financial markets. First, an increase in BTC ETF value could catalyze the rise of other crypto asset ETFs, prompting greater market attention to the entire crypto sector and ultimately establishing a digital asset ecosystem centered on BTC. Second, the growth in BTC ETF market value reflects a shift in investor trust and demand, with a growing preference for decentralized, transparent, and inflation-resistant assets. Meanwhile, gold’s traditional status as a safe haven might face challenges, as some investors may reduce their gold holdings in favor of Bitcoin and other digital assets. This shift in market preferences is likely to drive more financial innovation. The technological and digital transformation of financial markets will deepen with the adoption of crypto assets, leading traditional financial institutions to focus more on blockchain applications and crypto-financial integration. For example, crypto assets may gradually integrate with traditional banking services, insurance, and payment systems, forming a more flexible and diversified financial ecosystem. In conclusion, if BTC ETFs’ market value successfully surpasses that of gold ETFs, it will mark a significant milestone in crypto asset history. This would represent not only broad recognition of Bitcoin’s investment value but also a reflection of the financial market’s ongoing digital transformation.